Yes peace is a good idea. But to have peace you need to have a stable region where peace can grow and not a region that is engulfed in upheaval, civil war, gross human rights abuses and terror. To ask Israel to make major territorial concessions based upon the future goodwill of tyrants and dictators with Islamists knocking at their door, is a fool’s errand. It also is the typical western misreading of the events in the Middle East.
The Arab spring and now the Islamist winter is not based upon the Palestinian issue but upon the failure of Arab governments to take care of their own populations. It is the leftist ideology that the Arab-Israeli issue is the core to peace in the Middle East. That delusion has been fully and completely obliterated by recent events.
To have peace Israel will need stable peace partners. They do not exist today and it is unknown when they will exist. It is a falisy to think that by promoting peace between Israelis and Palestinians the rest of the Arab world will lose an issue. They will not. The Islamist forces will see any Palestinian agreement as delegitimate and a capitulation to the west. It will actually galvanize their forces as they seek to overthrow any vestige of western influence in the region. The dictators/armies will still use antisemitism as a way to galvanize the Arab masses in order to stay in power.
What will happen between Israel and Palestine? Nothing. These talks are a sham. Israel will release murderers because the USA will force the issue. The PA will sit in Washington and then declare Israeli intransigence. But because they came to DC the State Department will declare Palestinian compliance with US law and Foggy Bottom will then send more American taxpayer money to this dictatorial regime. Jews will then start to die, because Abbas will have to unleash his American trained forces onto someone other than himself and no one will bat an eye.
But for there to be a lasting legitimate peace in the region the Arab world needs to be revamped and recreated so that there is stability in the future. Antisemitism needs to be rooted out and an entire generation needs to be educated in the workings of democracy, equality and brought into the modern international economy. When brought into the modern economy the average Arab family will see a future for their children. The Arab peoples of the Middle East as a whole, need to look forward. They do not have that. But what they are is desperate. When desperate people have no future for their children or themselves they have nothing to lose. People who have nothing to lose are dangerous to not only the region but to the world’s stability as well.
Here are the real challenges in the Middle East. The Israeli-Palestinian issues are dwarfed by comparison.
Syria. Civil war between Sunnis and Shiites on the Israeli northern border. Whoever wins, either the Iranian backed Assad government of butchers or the Islamist/al-Qaeda/al-Nusra backed anti-Assad forces, it does not bode well for peace. Both sides are virulently anti-Semitic. Besides the revolting level of human tragedy. Honoring peace agreements does not appear to be something with which either side can be trusted. The instability will last for years.
Lebanon. Once thought to be a modicum of stability since the civil war, but the fact that the government is run by Hezbollah, newly declared a terror organization by Gulf States and the “military wing” designated by the EU, the reality of Lebanon’s stability is coming apart. Furthermore, Hezbollah as an ally of Iran is doing the heavy lifting in the Syrian civil war which has not spread into the Lebanese borders. Being drawn into the Syrian civil war will further erode Lebanon as a major player in the stabilization of the Arab world. Plus, Nasrallah just called for genocide against Israel once again.
Iran. Supporting their ally Syria in the civil war. Supporting Hezbollah. Promoting terror worldwide. Fomenting Shiite uprising throughout the Gulf region. Seeking a nuclear weapon. Al-Quds day calling once again for the destruction of the USA and Israel.
Egypt. Extremely unstable with the military coup (or non-coup) throwing out the Islamist anti-Semitic Moslem Brotherhood. But the military is not any less anti-Israel and they are extremely anti-American. With the addition of el-Baradei, a champion of the Iranian regime, Egypt is not a friend of the peace process.
Turkey. Erdogan is facing a challenge to his Islamist-dictatorial rule. He is afraid of being ousted as Morsi was and is continuing his purging of any non-Islamists from the military (especially the army), politics, judiciary and journalism. The uptick in antisemitic rhetoric, from just the basic anti-Israel rhetoric, is an indication of Erdogan’s vulnerability. Recently his government decided that a hawk was a “Zionist spy” and had it x-rayed to find tracking devices.
Jordan. The brat King is in danger of being overthrown by a well-orchestrated Moslem Brotherhood/Islamist align opposition. The ramped up anti-Israeli/anti-Semitic vitriol is indicative of his precarious position. Jordan is afraid of being overrun with Syrian refugees and being drawn into the Syrian civil war. With a population that is over 70% Palestinian, the Hashemite-Bedouin-government has always been a balancing act between extremists and remaining alive.
Saudi Arabia. Aging leadership and Wahhabi inspired backwardness, the kingdom is facing all sorts of challenges in their mostly Shiite regions. These regions happen to also be where the bulk of the oil wells exist. There have been uprisings and attacks that have been kept out of the main news. Human rights workers have been jailed, including the recent punishment of a web designer punished with 600 lashes and years in prison. The only difference between their Islamist outlook and that of al-Qaeda is that the Saudis are willing to use the United States to achieve their Wahhabist goals while al-Qaeda is not. Also al-Qaeda wants to overthrow the Saudis because of their association with the USA.
Gulf Region. Colonialist-created nations with tyrannical holds of a few Mafia-like families over the oil wells that most of the world depends upon. The world is willing to turn a blind-eye to the human rights violations and the gross human trafficking so prevalent in these countries. Also while most of their population is Shiite they are aligned with the USA to keep Iran out of the Gulf.
Gaza. Hamas controlled strip of land which is supposed to be part of a future state of Palestine. The Islamist imposed rules and laws that have aligned itself with Iran and Hezbollah. They have not been able to reach a unity agreement with the Palestinian Authority and seeks to overthrow Abbas. After losing Morsi support for their anti-Israel/anti-Semitic government Hamas is hunkering down and trying to regroup. There are any number of Islamic terror groups operating in Gaza which has now branched out into Sinai which have been at war with the Egyptian army.
Palestinian Authority. They are the unelected representatives of the Palestinian people. They have no electoral legitimacy. They are merely another dictatorship. They have clamped down on anti-Abbas journalists, promote Sharia law, human rights abuses are abundant. The virulent anti-Semitic nature of their broadcasts, especially their Holocaust denial, Temple denial, denial of Jewish attachment to Israel, lauding of the murderers of Jewish children, and their refusal to prepare their own people for the reality of compromise needed for a legitimate peace agreement casts doubt upon their actual purpose for talks with Israel.