Repost August 22, 2011
A barrage of rockets rained down on southern Israel this weekend, and despite a “cease-fire” supposedly brokered by Egypt the rockets still are coming. Granted not quiet as often as they were before but they can still kill. Needless to say, the response by the ardent pro-Israel community is “attack.” They all reminded me of that scene in Cast a Giant Shadow where Kirk Douglas, as Mickey Marcus, (the first general “aluf,” of Israel in 2,000 years) tells this haphazard band of Israelis that there have been enough Masadas…ATTACK. The problem is that it is so easy to decide what a government should or should not do when it is not your decision.
First, all middle east watchers know that the terrorist attack on Eilat and the subsequent rocket barrage has Iranian hands all over it. Their erstwhile ally Assad is under immense international pressure to stop massacring his own people. It has even been reported that the Iranian government has sent in their Iranian guard troops and Iranian guard sharpshooters to kill Syrian protestors. The Assads have used gunboats and have depopulated seatowns and Palestinian refugee camps in the hopes of quelling the opposition. Hama is once again, as it was under Assad the elder, a ghost town. Even the Arab League and the United Nations have decided that enough is enough and have called for Assad to step down.
What better way to take the heat off their ally than for Iran to start a firefight between Israel and one of their Islamist proxies? In fact Iran had their banana republic of Lebanon block a condemnation of the Eilat terrorist attack at UNSC. That of course made no sense as they don’t get a veto and it doesn’t’ really matter what Lebanon has to say. Maybe they should hand over to the world court the Hariri murderers as the UN has requested before they should get a seat on UNSC. But we are talking about the UN, that bastion of tyrannies, Islamists and blanket anti-western human debris.
It is important not to play Iran’s game.
Second, the terrorist attack on Eilat came from a supposed demilitarized Sinai. Since the Arab Spring and the unseating of Mubarak, the rise of the Islamists in Egypt is self-evident. In fact it is well-known that the Moslem Brotherhood has infiltrated the military itself for a long time. A lot of the terror that has taken place could not without the acquiescence of the Egyptian military, which by the way has yet to set a date for those erstwhile elections they keep talking about.
Meanwhile to keep an even keel with the Egyptians the Israeli government allowed the Egyptian military to send in three battalions into the Sinai to ostensibly fight the Islamists who have taken control of the area. Unfortunately or apropos, three Egyptian soldiers/policemen were killed in Israel’s attack on the terrorists who had murdered its citizens in Eilat. The soldiers were standing right next to the terrorists when the Israeli’s opened fire. Hence they were killed.
Of course there are several questions. Were they really solders? Were they in league with the Islamist terrorists? Were they firing at the Israelis too? Were they trying to provide cover for the terrorists get away? Or quite frankly as Israel is pretending were they just in the wrong place at the wrong time? So Israel apologized…this sent a lot of people into a tizzy. Honestly big deal. Jerusalem does what she needs to do in order to buy time for what she knows is coming. It is not a sign of weakness to play your enemy.
Now why would Israel play pretend with Egypt? Quite frankly, until Israel can secure the Sinai border it is vulnerable to attack from Islamists though the Sinai as exhibited last week. The security fence is only partially done and Israel needs to redirect some of its troops to that border. Hopefully it won’t become a replay of the war of attrition and that disastrous Bar-Lev line. There is no doubt that if Israel went into Gaza right now, Egypt would feel free to abrogate the Camp David accords, further militarize the Sinai and supply weaponry to Gaza terrorists. Israel cannot be seen to be the one negating that agreement, not right now.
Egypt needs to be held to account for the Camp David Accords. If it is abrogated it needs to not be seen as Israel’s fault. Let Egypt deal with the Moslem Brotherhood in its midst and let Egypt under the Moslem Brotherhood be seen for the genocidal nation-state it is becoming.
Third, if there is a war in Gaza there will be a war at the Lebanon and Syrian borders. The northern population will come under rocket attack as the south has been and what we had already previously seen. Israel needs to secure that northern border as they are with new landmines and sonar and detection systems. They need to put into place a northern version of the Iron Dome system, which right now is heading to the Gaza border.
Hezbollah is in control of Lebanon. It is an Iranian proxy. It needs to be seen for what it is and Lebanon needs to be held to account for its malfeasance. Israel cannot be seen to be starting a war with the Arab world, not yet at least, until her border is secure.
Fourth, the Palestinian Authority is seeking a reason to declare the Oslo Accords null and void as well. They are seeking UN recognition of a defunct and delegitimize state that cannot stand on its own and quite frankly doesn’t even know where it is to exist. A two-state solution has to be a real solution. But since Abu Amar has once again called off elections and has made no preparations for elections he is not the legitimate ruler of the Palestinian people. The Palestinian people elected Hamas, which took over Gaza in a bloody coup. Hamas’ main goal is Jewish genocide.
The PA and Hamas in their unity agreement are now one in the same
. The PA is responsible for everything that Hamas does, including terror and the holding of Gilad Shalit. It would also be nice if once Israel did go back into Gaza they didn’t leave until they had found Gilad and brought him home. That too takes preparation and planning.
Meanwhile, if the PA is successful in its UN bid for state hood they are going to need the United States not to veto the resolution in the UNSC. So far, the Obama administration has told them they will not vote for the resolution. Without the UNSC pro-vote there really is no legal standing for a Palestinian State no matter what the General Assembly does.
But all the Obama administration needs to vote yes is an Israeli mistake on the ground and then it will be able to follow its own instincts and vote yes to a Palestinian State. When you have Samantha “the US troops need to attack Israel” Powers
, John “Its called al-Quds, not Jerusalem” Brennan
, Hillary “I am an anti-Semite even if my daughter is married to a Jew” Clinton and her aide Huma “my family is Moslem Brotherhood” Abedin
making national security policy for the United States, you know they are waiting in the wings for any excuse to vote yes in favor of a Palestinian State. Especially one based on the 1949 armistice lines, and that divides Jerusalem. Thus giving the holiest of Jewish religious sites to those who openly hate and wish to commit genocide against Jews. It doesn’t matter the platitudes they give to negotiations. That is for the upcoming Presidential election campaign.
Israel is in a precarious position right now. She cannot give the Obama administration any cause to not back her at the UN. If the UN vote goes through in the UNSC and there is a declaration of a Palestinian State, then without a doubt there will be a war, but this war will make Israel to be the devil instead of the defender.
Yes, of course, in the eyes of most of the international community it doesn’t matter since it is that way already. However, there are also the international legal realities, which Israel does need to try to be seen as adhering to the spirit of signed agreements if not to the letter of the agreements. If the PA is not a state they cannot technically be seen as defending territory against Israel. If they start a war they will be the ones seen as abrogating Oslo not Israel.
Israel in defending itself from the promised terrorist attacks that will follow September, needs to be seen as defending her citizens not usurping the rights of someone else. Israel cannot be seen to be the ones abrogating Oslo. But if Oslo is abrogated then Israel can annex any part of Judea and Samaria that she wants.
She still needs to be seen as the one trying to abide by her agreements. It is not fair, but it is necessary. Balance, it is always about balance.
Israel also needs to prepare for the eventual Palestinian War coming after September. It has been promised and it will happen. She needs to organize, create and prepare a strategy to contain the violence against her citizens and to forestall as much of the international outcry to come. Much in the same way that Israel was able to prepare and thwart the flotilla of fools. (Check out Shurat ha Din in the side bar)
The PA and the Obama administration only need a little slip by Israel to go ahead with their plan to undermine Israel’s legitimacy. Israel needs to make sure she doesn’t give them an out. She also needs to prepare for the war she knows is to come in a few short weeks.
Lastly and it is important, Jerusalem has a job to do in the coming weeks. It is not an easy job. It is not one for the squeamish or those with no patience. Yes, the people of southern Israel are living through a nightmare. Living in shelters is not easy and there is trauma attached. But before Israel goes to a full-out war footing, she needs to be prepared. She needs to get her ducks in a row, militarily, internationally, and on the homefront. Her people had a drill this summer to prepare for war. If Israel doesn’t take it step by step and not allow herself to be drawn into a conflict before she is ready more Israelis, soldier and civilian, will die than need be. And there will be no justice for the victims of the terror that has happened and for those that have been murdered.
Remember you do not go to war at your enemies convenience…play them until your defenses are prepared, then as Mickey Marcus told that haphazard bunch of untrained Israeli soldiers so may decades ago. …ATTACK and this time Israel will use more than seltzer. (If you don’t understand this point make sure to watch the movie clip at the top)
Just as an aside too: it will become very apparent in the year to come whether President Obama thinks he will be reelected by how he deals with Israel. Right now the DNC is trying to stem the hemorrhaging of the Jewish vote. It is necessary from an Electoral College standpoint that the states of NY, FL and Cal go Democratic. It cannot happen without the Jewish citizenry of those states. Also, most of the Democratic Party bundlers are Jewish. Without their support the DNC will not have the money it seems to think it needs to run the next Presidential campaign. The DNC has already lost Wall Street…If Obama truly thinks he will not win the next election be forewarned that he will take it out on Israel. Watch for it and be ready.
For more of a take on the Arab Spring read: